The rate of innovation is not constant. This year, we’re either going to increase the rate of innovation or it will slow down.729
Some people think technology automatically gets better every year. It does not. It only gets better if smart people work like crazy to make it better. We need strong engineering talent applied to problems. That’s how any technology actually gets better. If people don’t work on technology, it actually will decline.730
Look at the history of civilizations and you’ll see this happen many times. Ancient Egypt was able to build incredible pyramids and forgot how to build pyramids. Then they forgot how to read hieroglyphics. In Rome, they were able to build incredible roadways, aqueducts, and indoor plumbing—they forgot how to do all those things. There are many examples in history. You should always bear in mind that entropy is not on our side.731
More recently, if you look at American manned space missions: We were able to go to the moon in 1969, then the space shuttle could only go to low earth orbit. Then the space shuttle retired and for almost a decade America had no access to space for humans.
This is a pretty bad trend, trending to zero. We need a strong trend in the other direction to have any chance whatsoever of making life multiplanetary. That’s the reason for the extreme sense of urgency. If we operate with extreme urgency, we have a chance of making life multiplanetary. Still just a chance; it’s not certain. If we don’t act with extreme urgency, that chance is probably zero.
I am not one of the doomsday people. I think we’re on a good path. But at the same time, I want to caution against complacency. If we are not complacent, and we have a high sense of urgency, things will be fine.732
If you want the future to be good, you must make it so.
Take action to make it good, and it will be.733
