Computing power is going to be crazy. The big change is the cost oComputing power is going to be crazy. The big change is the cost of computing power, not so much the circuit density (known as Moore’s Law). If you look at dollars per instruction, cost is dropping exponentially.
We’ll see massively parallel computers, computing power, and storage become extremely available. There will be ubiquitous computing everywhere.744
I expect AI to be incredibly sophisticated by the 2040s. Predicting trends in an exponential curve is tricky, because up close it often looks linear. But actually, it’s not linear. The pace of AI development itself appears to be accelerating.745
The ratio of total digital compute to total biological compute is the key metric to watch. This is perhaps the most fundamental ratio defining technological progress. It is rising incredibly fast.746
We’re building progressively greater intelligences, and the percentage of nonhuman intelligence is increasing. Eventually we humans will represent a small percentage of total intelligence. It might feel like we’re the biological bootloader for AI.747
We’re fairly close to artificial general intelligence, perhaps only a few years away. It’s possible we are on the event horizon of the black hole that is artificial superintelligence. Over a twenty- to thirty-year time frame, things could be transformed beyond belief. We probably won’t recognize society in thirty years.748