A low birth rate is a slow death for a civilization.863
Most historians overlook the role of low birth rates in the decline of civilizations.864 Will Durant has it correct in The Story of Civilization. A counterintuitive thing happens when civilizations are prosperous for too long—the birth rate declines.865
The same thing happened in ancient Rome. Julius Caesar and Augustus saw the problem but couldn’t solve it. Rome fell because the Romans stopped making Romans. That was the fundamental issue.
Yes, there were other causes. They had a series of malaria epidemics, plagues, and whatnot. But they had those before, too. It became fatal when the birth rate was far lower than the death rate.866
If the birth rate is below the replacement rate and that trend continues, we will eventually disappear. It’s elementary.
At a base level: no humans, no humanity.867
Durant looked at one civilization after another, hundreds of them. They all went through the same cycle. When the civilization was under stress, the birth rate was high. But as soon as there were no external enemies or they had an extended period of prosperity, the birth rate inevitably dropped. Every time. I don’t believe there’s a single exception.868
Population collapse is a real and immediate concern.869
Twenty years ago, I noticed birth rates were trending toward being below replacement level in every wealthy country. We always have to be cautious about extrapolating any demographic curve…but if you extrapolate the curves, if these trends continue, these countries will dwindle into insignificance. They might completely die out.870
It’s easy to predict what the population of any given country will be. Just take how many babies were born, multiply that by life expectancy, and that’s what the population will be if the birth rate continues to that level. It’s very straightforward.871
You can see the demographic trends clearly. It’s a very slow-moving ship. You know who’s going to be an adult in twenty years based on who was born last year.872
China had a one-child policy. About 2015 they changed it to a two-child policy, then a few years later they changed it to a three-child policy. The birth rate kept plummeting the whole time. They recently had their lowest growth rate ever. China’s birth rate reached 40 percent below replacement. Japan is far along in this. Japan declined by six hundred thousand people in 2021.873
The US has been below replacement rates since the early 1970s. The only reasons the population is increasing are immigration and people living longer. People living longer is why the population of Earth isn’t plummeting already—but it will.
Q: There seem to be a lot of people concerned about overpopulation. Isn’t that more of a problem than underpopulation?
The biggest myth that exists right now is this “overpopulation” myth.
In fact, we have a population collapse problem.874
They are operating on beliefs that were true in the past but are no longer true.875 These are not subjective matters; you can look at the birth rate. It’s an objective number. How many babies were born? There are obvious public records of this information.876
I’m pro-environment, but the environmental movement has gone too far.877 The extremist environmentalists view humans as a blight on Earth.878
Environmentalism started out with good intentions but paved the road to hell. It started to view humans as bad. As a burden on the earth that it couldn’t sustain. These views are completely false.879 Most people in the world are operating under the false impression there are too many people. This is not true. They think that having kids is bad for the environment. It is not.880
Earth could sustain a human population ten times the current level.881 Do a first-principles analysis. How much land area do we need to grow food? How much would that encroach on natural habitats? What’s the actual food growing potential? Is there enough water? There’s plenty of water because Earth is mostly water—70 percent water by surface area. Desalinization is very inexpensive. There’s not a shortage of water, surface area, or energy to grow food.882
We need to revive the idea of having children as a social duty; otherwise civilization will just die.883 I keep banging on the baby drum because declining birth rates have been the source of civilizational collapse over and over again throughout history. Let’s try to get this one right.884
I’ve heard people say many times, “How can I bring a child into this terrible world?”
I’m like, “Have you read any history?! Because this is a very good time. Things were way worse at every other time, ever.”885
Having children is the most optimistic thing somebody could do. It means you care about and believe in the future.886 I always encourage my friends to have kids, and I’m happy to see many of them do.887 Afterward, they thank me. Not one person has said they regret it. Ever.888
We are biologically inclined to love and nurture our children. To find it deeply fulfilling. If we weren’t, we would have ceased to exist long ago. Take a wolf or some other aggressive creature. When that creature has babies, the mother nurtures them and is tender and caring. We’ve all evolved to love our offspring. It’s a natural thing. And it’s a relatively fun thing to do!889
I had my first kid when I was twenty-nine. As of now, I have twelve kids with three women. Trying to set a good example here—having a lot of kids.890 I get more joy from my kids than anything else in my life. I’m not saying that’s the main reason to have kids, we should have them anyway, but my kids are certainly the greatest source of joy in my life.891
We should increase the population of Earth, not decrease it.892
Go forth and multiply.893