I’m not predicting a world war anytime soon. But given enough time, it will likely happen. This has been our pattern in the past. In the last century we had two massive world wars, three if you count the Cold War. It’s unlikely that we’ll never have another world war. We probably will at some point.805
Any war is tragic and difficult on a local basis. Then some wars are civilization-ending, or have that potential. Global thermonuclear warfare has a high potential to end civilization, perhaps permanently. But it could severely wound civilization and set back human progress to the Stone Age.
We want to prioritize avoiding civilizational risks over things that are painful and tragic on a local level, but are not civilizational risks.806
Few people alive today viscerally understand the horrors of war, at least in the US.
This concerns me.
Obviously people on the front lines in Ukraine and Russia understand how terrible war is, but how many people in the West understand it? My grandfather was in World War II. He was severely traumatized. For almost six years he was fighting in eastern North Africa and Italy. All his friends were killed in front of him. He would’ve died there too, except they finally gave him an IQ test. After the test, he was transferred to British intelligence in London.
From the war, he had extreme PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder). Like next level. He just didn’t talk. Ever. If you tried talking to him, he’d just tell you to shut up. He won a bunch of medals. Never bragged about it once, not even hinted at it. Nothing. I found out by searching his military records online.
He knows the horrors of war. He would say, “No way in hell do you want war. Avoid it at all costs.” But he died thirty years ago. How many people are alive now who viscerally remember World War II? Not many.807
I recommend people read about World War I warfare in detail. It’s rough. The sheer number of people who died is mind boggling. There’s a saying from World War I, “Young boys who don’t know each other, killing each other on behalf of old men that do know each other.” What the hell is the point of that?808
Something must stop the cycle of reciprocal violence. Something must stop it or it will never stop. Just eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth, limb for a limb, life for a life, forever and ever.809
I recommend reading Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series. The premise is protecting society through a dark age. My guess is there will be another dark age at some point.
I’m not predicting we’re about to enter a dark age. But there is some probability that we will, particularly if there’s a third world war. We need to ensure there are enough of us, enough of a seed of human civilization to revive civilization and shorten the length of a dark age.810
Asimov’s Zeroth Law: Take the set of actions most likely to support the humanity of the future.811